WINTER HARVEST PRODUCTION AND CROP PREDICTIONS FOR THE SUMMER SEASON

With winter harvest wrapping up across the region, and the focus shifting to summer grains, we’re taking a look at the most recent winter crop performance.

The 2021/22 winter harvest is expected to set a new national record for crop production, reaching 58.4 million tonnes, an annual increase of 5%.

Thanks to good growing conditions over spring, production in New South Wales is forecast to be the second highest ever on record for a season, with production well above average in all other states.

The breakdown:

Nationwide this season, there has been a record production of wheat and canola reported, with totals sitting at 34.4 million tonnes and 5.7 million tonnes respectively, while production of barley reached the second highest total on record, at 13.3 million tonnes.

Wheat production is up 3% on the previous record, set at the conclusion of the 2020/21 season, and canola production is a staggering 27% above the record set in 2020/21. Barley production is just 2% lower than the current production record, set in the 2016/17 season.

The impact of heavy rains and flooding:

While timely, increased amounts of rainfall in some areas, followed by milder spring temperatures, meant an increase in crop yield, other areas didn’t fare so well from the onset of La Ninã.

Multiple heavy rainfall events, teamed with thunderstorm activity throughout November, meant delays to the start of harvest across some areas of New South Wales and Queensland.

The full impact is unknown, but it is likely the heavier-than-average rains may lead to a drop in grain quality in these areas.

Though it isn’t expected to affect state totals, unfortunately, flooding across northern and central New South Wales has also meant a loss in grain production totals for some growers.

The impact of the mouse plague:

Given the huge increase in baiting of mice throughout the winter and spring months, populations have been radically reduced.

So far, there have been no reports of significant crop damage to date due to the inflated mouse population in 2021.

The outlook for summer grains:

The area covered by the planting of summer crops is anticipated to increase this season, given that higher rainfall has meant increased availability of irrigation water.

Planting of cotton, rice and sorghum will rise, with production of cotton forecast to increase by 79%, to a near record.

Additional rain, however, may also mean summer crops which were sown early may suffer moisture damage. On top of this, continuing heavy rainfall patterns may prove a challenge for growers sowing schedules.

Dramatic increases in rainfall have ensured heightened winter crop yields across the nation, to record-breaking levels, a trend which is expected to continue across the summer crops also.

The outlook for 2022 Winter crops is looking strong. They will start with a full profile of moisture in the majority of NSW. This will drive Canola to be a high percentage of the rotation again. Early winter and grazing wheats will be off to a good start soon.

For a more in depth look at crop yields across Southern NSW, click here.